The growth of D.I.Y. recording and publishing means that there is more music out there today than ever before, ranging from absolutely amazing to the worst of the worst. With that in mind, how can we use social media data to determine whether someone is actually going to be a success? The momentum an act sees during the early stages of their career can serve as a powerful indicator of exactly this. The amount of time it takes for the average artist to go from 20,000 to 50,000 Facebook page likes is 257 days, but for those who later reach one million, joining the likes of Faith No More, Colbie Callait and James Morrison, the average is less than half that, at only 117 days. What is more, the typical artist has less than a five percent chance of reaching this benchmark, but those who speed through this early stage in 60 days or less, see that percentage chance increase near five-fold.
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